Friday, March 11, 2011

Not a play in, but it'd be nice

I remain convinced that the win over Auburn has solidified Georgia's NCAA tournament spot.  Not so much for the win, but for the hurdle they surpassed by not losing.  No matter what happens today, Georgia will go into Sunday with at least five top 100 rpi wins and no losses below 90.  21 wins, no bad losses, 10 wins in the conference, sub-40 rpi=tournament bid for any power conference.

Of course, easily handling business during the early part of the day when only a few games were going on didn't hurt as they got a lot of airplay on highlights through the day.  Now, win over Alabama and no combination of craziness keeps them out. 

As for other teams that are hoping for a spot...

Clemson: They have to beat Boston College today, to be in the discussion.  The win yesterday over Virginia Tech was good, as it eliminated possible competition for an at-large spot and it was a top 100 win, but they are still in the mid-70s in RPI and still have three terrible losses to go with their quality wins.

VaTech: See above.  They have to hope Duke wins the ACC in a rout and that the tournament selection committee only looks at the win over Duke and not the two losses to Virginia.  With fewer than 20 wins and a mid-80's rpi, they look NIT bound.

Colorado:  The head scratcher.  On one hand, when they continuing to win, they boost Georgia's profile.  On the other, getting to the semis of the Big 12 will have more pop, especially with their road to get there, than Georgia currently has.  I think their RPI and strength of schedule is respectable enough when added to their three wins over KState and one over Texas.  If it comes down to Georgia vs. Colorado for the last slot in, I like our chances, though.

On caveat for the Buffs, though.  Should they slip up and win the whole Big 12, that should make some of the other teams on this list very nervous, as they will now get compared to Missouri, who will be the last team in from the Big 12.  In this scenario, it might be a two for one, considering it'll be hard to keep Georgia out after beating the Big 12 champ, and Georgia holding better win-loss records, RPI, SOS and lack of quality losses the all of the other teams listed here. 

Colorado St:  I think the Rams have done enough to get in, but another win in the WAC definitely gets them in.  Their biggest problem is ending the season on two losses to New Mexico might irreparably damage their profile in the eyes of the committee, should they not beat the Lobos today.  Win today and they are probably in with a 42 RPI and a 30 SOS.  Get two wins and to 20 wins on the season, and there is no doubt at all.

Washington: Here come the Huskies.  The win over Washington State gave them hope.  The terrible loss to Oregon State might still come into play, but a win over Oregon in the Pac-10 semis might just get them in.

Boston College: In a lot of ways the Boston College vs. Clemson game is a play in for one team, but might not matter to the other (draw your own analogies to Georgia vs. Bama).   Boston College probably is in, even with a loss to Clemson, but will eliminate competition by beating Clemson.  Clemson wins, they get in the discussion.

Michigan/Illinois: Today might be a play in game in Indy.  Both have some quality wins.  Both have lost to Indiana.  The difference is the Illinois has a multitude of quality wins, including over North Carolina.  Michigan beat Penn State twice, so they have that going for them.

Go Dawgs!

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