Thursday, March 3, 2011

Bubbles are for kids

I am not ready to declare Georgia definitely in the NCAA tourney, but I am ready to say that Georgia has to completely soil themselves and have several surpirse winners in major conference tournaments for them to be worried about not getting an at large bid.  As I wrote yesterday, I think Georgia will probably lose against Alabama.  I haven't done a real breakdown, since I have given up trying to think through Georgia basketball in that way, but it just feels like that is the case.

It doesn't matter.

Georgia has 20 wins.  They will have a sub-40 RPI.  They have no bad losses, and at most could end up with one bad loss going into selection Sunday.  I guess they could lose by 20 to LSU or Auburn and have some questions put upon them, but I still think they make it in.  They have a stellar road record.

All of this equals a bid.  At this point, Georgia is trying to play themselves out of a 11 or 12 seed, and ensuring they aren't in the 11 and 12 seed play in game.   I honestly don't see that much difference in a 7 and a 10 seed.  In a lot of ways, I would rather be 10 than 8 or 9, because you don't have to face a number one seed in the second game.

Business first, though.  Beating Alabama at home ensures the Dawgs at least fourth seed in the East.  I'll have a deeper breakdown on the tournament tomorrow, but a little help could get Georgia the third seed or a lot of help gets them a two seed.

Congrats on a strong season so far.  I'll worry about the ifs and buts later.  Right now, I'm hoping we have a few more weeks of this to talk about.

Go Dawgs.


Updated SEC tourney seeding probabilities from Roll Bama Roll.

1 comment:

  1. And don't forget the players have to play the game ,but Coach Fox got a great deal of our respectability back.

    While several losses were close, most were in the "We had'em by the shorthairs until second half/4th qtr" category. Those factors contributing to those losses seem to have waned in the last 2-3 games. If they have disappeared entirely I just might agree that your glasses are not rose tinted at all. Go Dawgs!