Monday, November 16, 2009

Thoughts on the BCS

After each of the weekly BCS polls were released last season, I took a look at the teams in contention for the BCS Championship game and broke down what I thought were their chances. This season, there is a ton less drama, since there are two undefeated SEC teams ranked 1-2 and three more solid undefeated teams right behind them.

That being said, with a couple of the key games to be played in the Big East and SEC going down in the next few weeks, plus the conference championships to be played yet, I wanted to look at the teams still in contention.

Win and in (or lose one, but win the SEC Championship and in).
Florida/Alabama: I guess Florida could lose to FIU or Bama could lose to Chattanooga and that would severely hurt their chances. I belive losses to FSU for Florida or Auburn for Bama won't. The undefeated/one loss winner of the SEC Championship game will play in the BCS championship.

Just win baby.
Texas: The Longhorns don't have the leeway the SEC teams have. Thanks Big 12 North! Texas has to win out or an undefeated Cincinatti or (more likely) TCU plays in the BCS championship.

Will someone please lose?
Cincinnati: Considering the state of Big East football since the West Virginia meltdown in 07 against Pitt with a trip to the championship game on the line, this is a pretty major story. Cincy has two tougher games remaining than TCU (Illinois, snicker, and at Pitt) That cuts both ways, though. A loss in either and the best they can hope for is the Orange Bowl.

TCU: A legit BCS championship contender team from a non-BCS conference. They have to keep winning convincingly (at Wyoming and home against New Mexico) to stay in the conversation. Realistically, Fiesta or Sugar is as good as it will get.

Never gonna happen.
Georgia Tech: If the winner of the SEC championship game loses to the weaker opponent on their schedule, Texas loses the Big 12 championship game, Cincy doesn't win out, TCU doesn't win out, Boise State doesn't win out or barely wins against one of the two remaining DII teams on their schedule, and Pitt loses to Cincy, then Tech has a 'shot' at playing in Pasadena. That is assuming Tech beats Georgia, which I refuse to do.

Pitt: Obviously, they have to beat West Virginia and Cincinnati. They also need some other stuff to happen that involves multiple losses by the SEC champion, a Big 12 loss by Texas and losses by all the other teams listed above them. Good news, though, the Wanstache is back!

Boise State: The Broncos need to win out and have moneys fly out Chip Kelly's ass. Then they still need some seriously weird things to happen. I personally don't think they would go over any one loss ACC champ or a two loss SEC champ.

I didn't bother listing any of the two loss teams, as they have NO chance of getting into the BCS Championship at this point. The best conference, top to bottom is the Pac Ten, but they all have at least two losses, so no love in this discussion is warranted.

Still too early to say Texas vs. SEC champ, considering the past three seasons.

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