Friday, August 28, 2009

Which Would You Rather?

Recently, I read a post at Nebraska Blog Big Red Network  that posed the question: Which would you rather?  The idea is choosing between a couple of outcomes and deciding which you would rather have for your team's season.

I threw out the obvious undefeated scenarios, since those are given.  I also threw out one loss to a team in the SEC, but still playing the SEC championship game, since that is substantively similar to scenario two in outcome, unless the loss is to an 8 loss team, then you only have the Sugar Bowl to play for at the SEC championship game.

This is purely an academic exercise.  These aren't predictions or even based in current reality.  I am just trying to get my mind around looking at things like this.

Scenario One:
Season record 11-1 (7-1).  Loss to an SEC East team.  No SEC championship game.
Pros:  11-1 is a terrific year, no matter how you parse it. With the competitiveness of the SEC, this record will almost always get you into a BCS game.
Cons: I hate losing to the SEC East, plus you stand the chance of being the best team not in the BCS AND having to play at noon in Tampa on New Year's Day.

Scenario Two:
Season record 11-1 (8-0).  Loss to North Avenue Trade School.  SEC Championship game.
Pros:  Still possibility of SEC and (depending on how good Tech is and what else happens) the BCS national title.  Obviously, beating the entire SEC East is great.  Currently, just beating Florida is pretty sweet.
Cons: ((((45-42)))) hahahahahahahaha

Scenario Three:
Season record 9-3 (7-2). One non-conf loss and losses to two SEC west teams.  SEC Championship game.
Pros: Shot at a 10 win season and another SEC title.
Cons: Regret over what might have been.  Depending on the OOC loss, listening to Tech fans blather about how much better Paul Johnson is than Mark Richt.  Lose the SEC championship game and you are probably in Orlando, at best, for New Year's Day.

Scenario Four:
Season record 10-2 (8-0). Loss to Okie State and Tech (this year).  SEC Championship game.
Pros: SEC championship game, possibility of a BCS Bowl, even if you lose the SEC Championship game.
Cons: All that about Tech earlier and hearing about how Georgia is evidence for how 'down' the SEC is this season.
*I grant this one is less less desirable than scenario two.  I modified it slightly and am still interested to see if this two loss season is 'better' than a three loss season.

Feel free to vote to the left for the option is the most palatable.  I honestly cannot decide which I would prefer, but I guess I am leaning to Scenario Two, since that offers the greatest possibility of a national title.

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