Monday, August 17, 2009

A Little Game of Comparison

Quick, what is your answer? Who is your first team pre-season All-American (2008 stats):

Player 1
Over 5000 yards offense and 50 TDs

or

Player 2
Over 3300 yards offense and 42 TDs

Player 1, right? Does it make you feel better that you picked the reigning Heisman Trophy award winner Sam Bradford? Not if you are Ivan Maisel or Phil Steele. They both went with player 2, Tim Tebow.

How about this for preseason All-American (2008 stats):

Player1
1326 yards rushing, 12 TDs

or

Player 2
1555 yards rushing, 16 TDs

Hmmm. Does it help that both players' teams run wide open offenses? Player 2, right? Not so fast, that is Oklahoma State's Kendall Hunter. Ivan Maisel thinks Jonathan Dwyer of Georgia Tech is All-American material.

Alright, one more, this time for preseason All-SEC (2008 stats):

Player1
963 yards recieving, 14 TDs

or

Player 2
924 yards receiving, 4 TDs

Does it help if you know that Player 2 had an extra game? You pick Player 1? Good pick. You just picked AJ Green over Julio Jones, something Mike Huguenin didn't do. At least the SEC media put both Jones and Green first team, although I would posit that Brandon LaFell should be ranked above Jones, since, you know, he had more yards and TDs than Jones. With one less game.

Of course, that game was the SEC Championship game.

So Huguenin is saying that AJ Green won't be as good this season as Julio Jones? Surely he isn't saying Jones had a better season last year just because of the debacle in Athens (where Jones did gain six more yards)? Is he saying Jones had a better season because Alabama made the SEC title game?

Hey, individual preseason lists are subject to personal feelings about how the season will turn out. I understand that. It just seems that these three selections are more than that. TGCPE is a great player and a terrific leader. So Sam Bradford isn't? Bradford's 2008 sophmore season was bigger than Tebow's sophmore season (just over 4000 yards total offense and 55TDs). I guess Sam Bradford hasn't made anyone's life better just being around them. That is why it makes more sense to forgo any preseason rankings and lists. You are basing your decisions on nothing more than conjecture, if the prior season's stats mean nothing.

The one that really makes me wonder what Maisel is thinking is Dwyer over Hunter. Dwyer is a great talent, no doubt. However, first team All-American great? No way, at least not until he shows it on the football field. Hunter, Jahvid Best at Cal, Charles Scott at LSU and probably Quizz Rodgers at Oregon State are above him. Of course, Phil Steele selected Dwyer as one of his preseason All-Americans, so I could just be nutty.
Jonathan Dwyer, in the running for All-American?
I guess after September 5th and November 28th, we'll have a better idea. Of course, that is the point, this is merely academic until the games are played.

5 comments:

  1. That type of writing is why i follow your blog. Good good piece.. Keep up the good work and Go Dawgs

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  2. Thanks. BTW, I can't find your email, but do you care if I link your blog?

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  3. Because Jones had the size that was ready to block last August, I kinda understood why he got more hype than AJ early on. But AJ ran past Jones in stats last year like he ran by ASU d-backs in Tempe.

    Now that he's comparable in size..fuhgidabowtit! Go Dawgs! (and yeh...great post)

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  4. I don't mean to go all spread offense hating but I'd take Jahvid Best from Cal over both Dwyer on Hunter. I'd like to see how Hunter does without Brandon Pettigrew blocking for him and I wonder how Dwyer would do in a pro-style offense.

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  5. Best over Dwyer and Hunter. Sorry for the typo.

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